by
Todd Bennett
It is amazing how otherwise intelligent people have no clue about politics, especially when it is their job to. The fact is I have known for a while with plus 95 percent certainty that McCain would get the nomination. Now I am plus 99 percent sure.
For Rick Sanchez to talk about John McCain being finished is preposterous, and ignorant, beyond words. While I applaud his willingness to hold McCain's feet to the fire, he fails to realize that he is not only not harming him, he is effectively handing him the nomination.
There are two reasons for this: One, is the notion that John is feeding red meat to the base. He now has, as Todd Beeton cleverly points out, run into good fortune.
From the front page of mydd:
More on John McCain and the "B" Word by Todd Beeton, Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 09:40:02 AM EST
Since Tuesday, when the man David Brooks calls "among the finest men" allowed Hillary Clinton to be insulted in front of his face, the whole John McCain/Hillary Clinton situation has heated up. Talking Points Memo has been ably tracking the story.
First, as I wrote on Tuesday, John McCain stood by while a supporter of his referred to Senator Clinton as a "bitch" in a question to him demanding to know how Clinton can be defeated. McCain's response was notable for what it lacked, a refutation of the insult; in fact, on the contrary, he said:
That's an excellent question.
This led CNN anchor Rick Sanchez subsequently to ask.
Is John McCain done as a result of this?
And to post on the screen:
"An Excellent Question?"
John McCain and the B-Word
So what does the McCain team do? Not believing its luck that it now has both Clinton and the media to serve as the foil for, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis sent out an e-mail blast including the video of the now infamous exchange and a demand for an apology from CNN.
The CNN Network, affectionately known as the Clinton News Network, has stooped to an all-time low and is gratuitously attacking John McCain for not defending Hillary Clinton enough when a South Carolina voter used the 'B' word to describe her when John McCain stopped into a luncheon yesterday at the Trinity restaurant in Hilton Head, SC.
A voter used a word that I would not have used to describe Senator Hillary Clinton and asked the Senator how he was going to beat her. Senator McCain first responded by saying that he respected Senator Clinton, as he has said repeatedly throughout the campaign...
The effect of this is to make the Senator the "dragonslayer" of his party. Short of wrestling Osama Bin Laden to the ground on ESPN and FOX on live television, this ranks among the best turn of events possible for McCain.
Reason number two this is so helpful is the concept of "presumptive nominee" . We know elections really start when folks come together on Labor Day, have barbecues, and arguments get made. This creates the first true narrative in terms of poll position for a General Election. For a primary, that becomes Thanksgiving. So a week out from our beloved family holiday, John McCain becomes cast as the "Anti-Hillary". The effect of this is to bring the "just now paying attention Republicans" onto the stage thinking John McCain is their standard bearer. It is very likely Republicans will spend Thanksgiving proudly defending him, and I would guess he will surge in the polls by December.
This sucks, due to the fact that we were looking at the electoral gift of Giuliani as a possibility, and now it looks as though we will have to beat their most electable candidate. Which we can do, but still, instead of a blowout we will have to look for another tense election day.
You may be wondering why I was so sure about McCain in the first place, and what I can tell you is simple: For Republicans, South Carolina is their key state, and almost all of the Bush money folks are backing McCain there. When he takes South Carolina, he will be cast as a "comeback kid" and sweep the rest of the way. Easy, really. You can argue with me, and point out your credentials, but my instincts are good and to be honest, too many of you spend too much time looking at polls when you should be looking for other indicators. The dominoes that line up for a successful candidate have a little to do with polls, but the money and the machinery are more important. The big establishment machinery have been behind McCain all along, guys. Just like......Kerry!
And just like Kerry, he will lose in the General. He is the past. Who is the future? Not Hillary. Why not Hillary? Because our establishment is undergoing a takeover. We are going from Feinstein to Feingold. I say, good for us. Say hello to either President Edwards or Obama, depending upon Iowa.
Cross-posted at:
http://mydd.com/